I’ve been an avid, independent retail investor since December 2009, and I’m considering incorporating this kind of work, especially the associated trend and technology analysis, into my professional career.
What I do:
- Analyze disruptive tech trends. Build targeted funds within my portfolio to capitalize on said trends. Advise investor colleagues, friends, and family members.
- >20% CAGR since Dec. 2009 (During same period, S&P 500 CAGR was 11%.)
- >800 positions, >200 unique equities, >6 targeted funds
Example fund: Solar Industry – 48% CAGR over 6.5 years
- Investigated cost and deployment trends in solar industry and converging technologies, namely batteries.
- Analyzed energy consumption trends, e.g., shift to electric transportation, shift from gas to electric heating.
- Built fund of ~10 companies (started 1/2017, holding count has varied from 7 to 15 companies).
- 48% CAGR over 6.5 years, while S&P CAGR was 11% and Invesco Solar ETF (TAN) was 27%.
Example fund: Metaverse, Esports, Gaming, AR, VR (MEGAVR? …the name is a work in progress) – 35% CAGR over 7.5 years
- ~20 companies (started 1/2016, holding count has varied from 4 to 24 companies).
- 35% CAGR over 7.5 years, while S&P CAGR was 11%.
Current investment foci: AI, Solar Energy, EVs, Metaverse/Gaming/E-Sports/VR
Key tenets of my investment philosophy:
- Investing based on disruptive trends may seem risky, but it can be riskier to invest in the incumbents.
- Look for convergence of multiple individual trends that will amplify or accelerate outcomes.
- Take the time to actually do the math; exponential growth is unintuitive and yet fundamental to investing decisions.
- By definition, ‘investing’ implies a future outlook; if you’re focusing on the current quarter’s profits, are you really making an investment?
- Don’t undervalue personal expertise with a technology, or experience with a product or company.
- You don’t need every investment to soar in order to beat the market; you don’t even need most investments to soar, and you should not assume that they will.
News Worth Reading
- You see an article about AI. I see yet another factor increasing the value of solar technology.
A.I. Could Soon Need as Much Electricity as an Entire Country
Behind the scenes, the technology relies on thousands of specialized computer chips. - Not that economists have ever been good at predicting recessions, but what’s going on this time?
Opinion | Dude, Where’s My Recession?
A tale of a disaster wrongly foretold. - US electric vehicle sales are completely dominated by one automaker. I bet you can guess which one.
Tesla is outselling the competition by miles. This chart shows how much catching up other automakers need to do.
The Tesla Model Y outsold other EVs in the US this year by a long shot. Take a look at the top-selling EVs that Elon Musk has beat so far this year. - Can market performance during the first two quarters predict the second half?
Blistering stock returns this year make the case for a strong second half
Stock market history suggests the S&P 500’s strong start to the year is setting the table for more gains ahead in the second half of 2023. - We just entered a bull market… what does that mean?
The S&P 500 has entered a bull market. Here’s what history says will happen next.
In the 12 months after a bull market starts, the S&P 500 usually sees outsized returns. - Latest levelized cost of energy research from Lazard: wind and solar PV still winning the price war.
2023 Levelized Cost Of Energy+
Lazard’s latest LCOE shows the continued cost-competitiveness of certain renewable energy technologies, and the marginal cost of coal, nuclear, and combined-cycle gas generation. - Solar PV generation grew at an annualized rate of 30% from 2011 to 2021. That’s a 16x increase.
Solar PV – Analysis – IEA
Solar PV – Analysis and key findings. A report by the International Energy Agency.